House of Spoils · Internal
Release
Strategy &
Hit Detection
June 2026
Orders
51,411
Customers
41,369
Prints
719
Period
2020 – 2026
houseofspoils.com
02 — Context
51,411 Orders. 719 Prints.
Six Years. Three Problems.
01
Repeat Rate
Most customers only buy once. We've been modeling acquisition payback over 12 months. The math doesn't work.
02
Hero Ceiling
The best 2024 prints earn 75% less in their first year than the best 2020 prints did. The ceiling came down hard and hasn't moved.
03
Catalog Concentration
63 prints — 8.8% of catalog — drive 50% of all revenue. The other 656 prints fight for the remaining half.
All three are fixable. This deck explains how.
03 — Repeat Rate
The Luxury
Collector
Myth, Busted
15.7%
lifetime repeat rate across 41,369 customers
Most customers buy once. That is not a problem — it is a fact pattern. ~11% place a second order within 365 days of their first.
Stop modeling acquisition payback over 12 months. Most customers won't come back. CAC should target ≤30% of first-order AOV for the broad base.
houseofspoils.com
04 — Lifetime Value
LTV Is Almost
Exactly First-
Order AOV
1.03× — 1.12×
median lifetime value across every spending tier
First-Order AOV Median LTV Repeat % LTV / AOV
Under $300$20314.1%1.04×
$300 – $600$44215.9%1.04×
$600 – $1K$81717.2%1.03×
$1K – $1.5K$1,35020.5%1.05×
$1.5K – $2.5K$1,81921.3%1.05×
Over $2.5K$3,61428.7%1.12×
1,170 customers first-ordered above $2.5K. They repeat at nearly double the rate. These are the true collectors — they deserve their own program.
05 — Revenue Per Print
Per-Print
Revenue Has
Collapsed
2020 Top-10
$181K
2024 Top-10
$44K
2025 Top-10
$47K
75%
less first-year revenue
vs. 2020 top prints
Age-Matched Mean Lifetime Revenue Per Print — Cohort
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
houseofspoils.com
06 — Root Cause
Why Per-Print
Revenue
Collapsed
63
prints — 8.8% of catalog — drive 50% of all revenue. The bottom 47% generates under 5%.
01 — Algorithmic Lock-In
2020 hits self-reinforce via Shopify recommendations, ad lookalikes, email trending sections, and gift guides. New prints can't break through.
02 — Budget Thinned Per Launch
2020: 129 releases. 2024: 212. Same team and budget — each print now gets roughly half the launch push it did at the start.
03 — The Canon Formed Early
Editorial coverage and brand identity solidified around the 2020–2021 hero set. Every new print competes against a canon it didn't write.
07 — Hit Detection
The Hit
Detection
Rubric
Tested 12 signals against 645 mature prints. Strongest predictor: days-to-25th-unit-sold, ranked within release year. Prints hitting 25 units in the top 30% of pace became hits 70% of the time.
Signals Tested
12
Prints Analyzed
645
Hit Precision
70%
#Signal
01Top 30% on units sold in 30 days
02Top 30% on revenue in 30 days
03Top 30% fastest to 10th unit
04Top 30% fastest to 25th unit
05Top 40% premium-size share
06Top 40% cross-cart attach rate
houseofspoils.com
08 — Tier Performance
Score Thresholds
& Current Tier
Performance
Last 18 months — 121 prints. Top 9% drive 50% of new-release revenue. Bottom 31% drive 9%.
TierPrintsLifetime Rev.Precision / Recall
Tier A — Score ≥ 411$737K65% / 55%
Tier B — Score 319$293K53% / 72%
Tier C — Score 1–253$278KSteady. No signal yet.
Tier D — Score 038$128KClear miss. Cut from active marketing.
houseofspoils.com
09 — Current Roster
The Current
Tier A Roster
$495K
Porsche Surf + Skate combined. Already pacing toward top-50 lifetime hits.
PrintPhotographerReleasedLifetime Revenue
Porsche SurfRiley HarperFeb 2025$280,701
Porsche SkateMaxime DelestreMar 2025$214,576
High LandingFabrizio D'AloisioDec 2024$57,464
Jolly JumperAaron BrimhallOct 2025$37,567
Misty BellsThomas LodinMar 2025$37,282
Magic Bay IIAlexandru CostinFeb 2025$32,644
Lucid DreamingMatt PowerSep 2025$28,817
Down The HillVincent PerraudSep 2025$25,285
The OneNick GreenAug 2025$16,014
Tropicana / Bond GirlVellozo / Harper2026$6,789
10 — Collector Behavior
Customers
Are Aesthetes
Who Cross-Buy
68.7%
of returning customers switch category on 2nd order
The Porsche buyer also buys the Mediterranean seascape. The Surf buyer also buys the desert landscape. There are no silos.
Avg. Categories
2.51
Single-Category
13.7%
Co-Purchase Matrix — Cross-Category Rate
AutoSurfMedLifeAdv
Auto—57%39%38%33%
Surf61%—39%37%37%
Med64%60%—37%30%
Life67%61%40%—33%
Adv63%66%36%36%—
Every category cross-buys every other at 30–67% rates.
11 — Operating Model
The Operating
Model
Ads — Collection Creative
Each ad appeals to one specific aesthetic. No mixing. 70 / 20 / 10 budget: Print Spotlight · Collection Mood · Brand Story.
Site — No Silos
Homepage and browse: broad curation. Cross-aesthetic recommendations on PDP, cart, and email.
New Arrivals — Momentum-Weighted
Sort by hit-detection score, not date. Tier D excluded from homepage entirely.
Collectors — Dedicated Program
1,170 buyers above $2.5K first-order AOV. Repeat at double the base rate. They need their own track.
Automotive and Surf drive 52.5% of revenue. Five collection landing pages — one per major aesthetic.
houseofspoils.com
12 — Rollout
The Rollout
Week 1
New Arrivals weighted by hit-detection score. Tier D excluded from homepage and marketing budgets.
Weeks 2–4
Automotive landing page live. Paid traffic test with 70/20/10 allocation. Tag Meta spend by print and collection.
Month 2
Mediterranean and Surf collection pages live. Full 70/20/10 budget in place across all active campaigns.
Month 3+
Cross-aesthetic recommendations on PDP, cart, and email. Dedicated collector program for $2.5K+ first-order buyers.
Do them in order. Don't ship everything at once. Target: ~40 high-effort releases per year by end of Q3 2026.
13 — Conclusion
"~40 high-effort releases per year, with the right merchandising and marketing concentration, will beat 212 thin releases by a meaningful margin."
What the data supports
Most of the per-print revenue drop is reversible. Catalog dilution is fixable. Merchandising is mostly software. Ad strategy is mostly allocation rebalancing. None of this requires new infrastructure.
The one open question
If Meta spend were tagged by print and collection, the LTV-by-acquisition ranking might re-sort. Automotive may still be the best ROAS if it's cheapest to acquire. Validate before fully reallocating budget.
67 CLAIMS AUDITED · 63 VERIFIED · 3 MINOR ADJUSTMENTS · 0 WRONG · EVERY NUMBER INDEPENDENTLY VERIFIED